The admissions forecaster attempts to give an indication of what student numbers will be per department based on current application figures, and the likelihood that those applications will become UF based on the behaviour of applicants in previous years. A conversion to UF rate is calculated for each route owner / student mix / application status / intake type (DL, HEP, IPC, Standard) combination based on conversion to Unconditional Firm from that combination last year. For example, a single rate is calculated for All Archaeology, UG standard applicants who on this day last year had an application status of CF. If 50% of them became UF then we assume that any Archaeology UG applicants with a status of CF today also have a 50% chance of becoming UF. These rates are recalculated on a daily basis so that we are always considering what applicants did at exactly the same point in the cycle last year
Although, having said a single rate is calculated, we actually calculate 4 rates, but in each case the same logic applies:
- Conversion to UF at end of cycle (last year)
- Conversion to UF at end of cycle (3 year average)
- Conversion to registered on 1st December (last year)
- Conversion to registered on 1st December (3 year average)
We also estimate future applications based on what percentage of applications for a route owner / student mix / intake type had not yet been received this time last year and again of those not yet received, what percentage became UF. This has a large impact on PG estimates
Using these rates we then add together all the UF estimates from each application status estimate to give an estimated total UF for that route owner.
Limitations and assumptions
The logic used for the admissions forecaster has a number of limitations that may affect the validity of the results it predicts:
- It assumes that the past is a good predictor of the future and indeed that students this year will behave as students in previous years have behaved. As external factors change this may not be the case
- There is no adjustment for initiatives that may affect these rates, e.g. a successful marketing initiative last year affected the numbers because students were applying earlier than in previous years, but the algorithm assumed that the same rate of future applications applied. Likewise the early UF offer scheme may have an effect that won't be covered
- The level of granularity does not take account of the differences that may appear between programmes. For example, a department may offer some programmes that are easy to recruit to and others that are not, but a single rate is calculated for them all which may over-inflate the estimate for some programmes at the same time as under-estimating for others.
AS AT 18/04/2019 IT HAS NOT YET BEEN POSSIBLE TO TEST THE RESULTS. SNAPSHOTS ARE BEING TAKEN FOR 2019 AND AT THE END OF THE RECRUITMENT CYCLE ANALYSIS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO SEE WHEN AND IF THE PREDICTION BECAME ACCURATE. UNTIL THEN, THIS WORK SHOULD BE SEEN AS ANOTHER INDICATOR OF WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN RATHER THAN A STRONG PREDICTION
The workbook has the following tabs:
Above and below target scatterplot This tab gives a graphical representation of how far away from target FTE, enrolment FTE is by department and student mix, with the potential to filter the results to show all departments, all departments within a faculty or a single department. Each department is represented by a single mark on the scatter plot with a downward arrow if the enrolments are below target, and upward arrow if enrolments are above target and a dot if the two are equal. The dotted line in each panel shows where the marks would sit if enrolments were equal to target. Therefore the distance of the mark from this line indicates the distance from target. |
Faculty Overview The faculty overview tab shows the progress of enrolments against target for a single Faculty. The top panel shows the numbers summed for the faculty broken down by student mix and the bottom panel shows the same numbers but additionally broken down by programme owner. In each chart the grey bar shows the target FTE, whilst the coloured bar shows the FTE of enrolled students. The student enrolment bars are coloured according their percentage difference from target. The yellow / orange bars show where enrolments are below target and the blue bars show where enrolments are above target. The darker the colour the further away from target. |
Department Overview The department overview tab offers, for each department / programme owner the option to drill down into the data to see, by programme how the numbers for the department have been calculated. The top panel shows a summary for the whole department. Each square is coloured depending on the percentage difference from target for the department / student mix combination Clicking on any student mix row in that top panel will show a breakdown for that department / student mix by route below. As in the Faculty Overview, the grey bars show the target FTE, whilst the coloured bars show the FTE of enrolled students. The student enrolment bars are coloured according their percentage difference from target. The yellow / orange bars show where enrolments are below target and the blue bars show where enrolments are above target. The darker the colour the further away from target. |
All Departments This tab gives a university level overview of the progress of student enrolments against targets. The totals are shown in the top panel, followed by a breakdown by programme owner below. Each square is coloured depending on the percentage difference from target for the department / student mix combination. The results can be shown as a total number for all years of study selected, or broken down by those years of study using the 'Split by year of study?' filter. |
The workbook makes use of the following filters:
| Filter Name | Filter Options | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faculty | This filter allows you to restrict the results shown to a single faculty or (where applicable) show data for all faculties | ||||||||||||||||||
| Department | This filter allows you to restrict the results shown to a single department or (where applicable) multiple / all departments | ||||||||||||||||||
| Include pending? | If No is selected, then only enrolment records from SITS where the registration status equates to either 'Registered' or 'Hull Registered' will be included. Selecting Yes will additionally include student enrolment records from SITS where the registration status is pending | ||||||||||||||||||
| Routes included | This filter allows for the inclusion / exclusion of groups of registrations / targets that have been identified as necessary inclusions / exclusions for reporting purposes. The groups are defined as follows:
| ||||||||||||||||||
| Year of Study | The year of study that an enrolment is for. To see all new entrants, select 0 and 1 and additionally set New Entrant? (next filter) to 'Y' | ||||||||||||||||||
| New Entrant? | This filter allows you to restrict the results to only show new entrants to the university. This is students on year 0 for a foundation course, or students on year 1 for other programmes. Select 'Y' to see just new entrants and both 'Y' and 'N' to see results for all students | ||||||||||||||||||
| IPC Flag | This filter allows for the inclusion / exclusion of targets and enrolments marked as 'IPC'. This is done via a tag in RAMP for targets and by the UDBF field on the SCJ record in SITS being set to IP2. Selecting 'Y' in this filter includes records that are marked as IPC, selecting 'N' includes records that aren't marked as IPC and selecting both includes all records | ||||||||||||||||||
| Split by year of study? | This is a filter option on the 'All Departments' tab that will show the results broken down by year of study if 'Yes' is selected and as a total across the selected years of study if 'No' is selected |
SQL Files
Q:\EDW\SQL\York Data\Enrolments\Registration Monitoring
Tableau File
Q:\DISCOVER\Student\Workbooks\Published\Registration Monitoring\New registration monitor\Enrolment against targets monitor 2018.twbx